afrique: Une superpuissance en devenir

Taken from African Business Magazine. March-April edition.

Analysis by Bamanga Tukur, Chairman of africapractice group

Pouvez-vous imaginer qu’un jour l’Afrique jouira d’une telle influence que le reste de la communauté internationale devra se ranger à ses opinions sur les questions internationales ? Imaginez-vous qu’un jour l’Afrique soit une superpuissance ? Ce jour pourrait arriver plus tôt que vous ne le pensiez.

Lors de la conférence sur le changement climatique à Copenhague, l’Afrique a prouvé qu’elle savait se montrer unie. Malgré les différences entre les États, les 53 nations ont affiché un front uni, dans une large mesure grâce à la direction de Meles Zenawi ; et la communauté internationale a dû écouter et s’incliner. La conférence de Copenhague pourrait-elle marquer l’avènement d’une superpuissance

internationale ? Plusieurs faits le laissent penser :

• L’Afrique représente potentiellement le plus grand nombre de voix aux Nations unies - 53 voix. Si les gouvernements africains continuent à adopter une position commune comme à Copenhague, ils pèseront dans les décisions.
• L’Afrique possède la plupart des ressources naturelles mondiales, aujourd’hui en déclin. Elle bénéficie aussi d’un avantage dans le domaine des nouvelles sources d’énergie propres.
• L’Afrique compte près d’un milliard de personnes - le plus vaste marché de consommateurs hormis la Chine et l’Inde.
• La croissance économique est aujourd’hui plus forte en Afrique que dans n’importe quelle autre région du monde.
• L’Afrique disposera bientôt de sa propre force militaire de réserve qui pourrait contribuer de manière significative à la lutte contre le terrorisme.

Énergie et ressources

L’Afrique recèle d’immenses ressources : plus de la moitié des réserves mondiales de cobalt, de manganèse, de café, de cacao, d’huile de palme et d’or. Elle a du platine et de l’uranium en abondance, et possède près de 20 % du pétrole vendu sur le marché mondial. Chaque mois, n découvre de nouveaux gisements de pétrole et de gaz sur le continent. D’ici deux ans, l’Ouganda à l’Est et le Ghana à l’Ouest rejoindront le club des plus gros producteurs de pétrole. Dans le domaine des énergies propres, l’Afrique possède un atout : de nombreuses régions du continent sont propices au développement de projets d’énergie solaire. Le jour où les centrales solaires d’Afrique du Nord seront reliées à l’Europe et alimenteront des usines à Barcelone, à Bari et à Bruxelles, est peut-être tout proche. D’autre part, le continent détient 40 % du potentiel d’énergie hydroélectrique mondial, en tenant compte du barrage Grand Inga qui, une fois achevé, produira quelque 39 000 MW, ce qui en fait le plus important projet hydroélectrique dans le monde. L’Afrique est également bien lotie en énergie géothermique. À eux seuls, les pays de la vallée du Rift pourraient générer environ 7 000 MW, selon les estimations du Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement. Le Kenya prévoit de produire 1 000 MW d’énergie géothermique d’ici à 2018.

Stabilité et croissance

Au cours de ces dix dernières années, l’Afrique a enregistré en moyenne un taux de croissance supérieur à 5 %. Parallèlement, elle a connu une période de stabilité politique sans précédent. Il y a bien eu

des heurts, notamment au Kenya, à Madagascar, en Mauritanie, au Soudan, en Guinée et au Zimbabwe, mais l’Union africaine est parvenue à résorber la plupart de ces crises, et la stabilité est revenue ou en voie de l’être. Comme l’explique Vijay Mahajan, spécialiste du marketing et consultant pour des multinationales, la classe moyenne africaine représente à peu près 300 millions de personnes qui sont aussi des consommateurs. On peut établir un parallèle avec ce qui s’est produit en Inde il y a quinze ans, quand l’urbanisation rapide et les investissements massifs dans les services et les infrastructures ont transformé le pays. Bientôt, plus de 70 villes africaines compteront une population de plus d’un million d’habitants. Aujourd’hui, le PNB par habitant est déjà plus élevé en Afrique qu’en Inde, et un quart des nations africaines a un PNB par habitant supérieur à celui de la Chine. Alors que les économies européenne et américaine stagnent, l’introduction de nouvelles technologies en Afrique, en particulier les TIC, permettra au continent de progresser à pas de géant. Aucun doute qu’il se développera davantage dans les dix ans à venir qu’au cours des 50 dernières années.

Superpuissance : les clés d’un statut

Devenir une superpuissance demande beaucoup d’efforts. Mais surtout, pour accéder à ce statut, un pays doit se convaincre qu’il est une superpuissance. Il doit adopter une attitude radicalement différente. Moins de dépendance, davantage de vision. Ces dix dernières années, à part quelques exceptions notables (Obasanjo, Bouteflika, Wade, Mogae et Mbeki peut-être, ainsi que quelques membres de la commission de l’Union africaine), l’Afrique a cruellement souffert de l’absence de dirigeants charismatiques et d’un manque de vision parmi les élites politiques. Un système d’éducation de qualité et le retour de milliers d’Africains dans leur pays devraient tout changer. Lagos, Luanda et d’autres centres d’activité du continent accueillent déjà les Africains de la diaspora qui reviennent en masse. Ceux-ci ont été formés dans les meilleures universités du monde. À présent, ils rentrent chez eux pour exercer leur métier. Ils emportent avec eux des capitaux, du savoir-faire et de nouvelles technologies. On assiste à ce que j’ai appelé la « Raspora ». La vente de Celtel qui a rapporté des millions il y a cinq ans à Mo Ibrahim, le chef d’entreprise soudanais vivant au Royaume-Uni, a attisé leur appétit. Depuis, « l’effondrement » des États-Unis et de l’Europe a rendu le retour au pays encore plus tentant.

L’Afrique a besoin aujourd’hui de bons dirigeants. Une génération animée de convictions profondes, comme le nouveau président du Gabon, permettra à l’Afrique d’accéder au statut de superpuissance. Pour cela, ces nouveaux dirigeants doivent mettre fin au clientélisme et se tourner résolument vers leur nation, leur région et vers le monde.

A common agenda for an uncommon people

I attended the East African Community’s rail conference in Dar es Salaam last week. As EAC integration makes its slow steady progress (much like the railways) there is increasing talk of the significance of this regional merger. A single market! A larger customer base! Greater movement of people and goods! A stronger political force in international fora! A single currency! (The Greeks may cringe at the last one)…

As I milled about with representatives from the five nations (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda) as well as co-sponsor delegates from the World Bank, it occurred to me that whilst it’s wonderful to see African neighbours attempt to collaborate for mutual benefits - I am of Eritrean origin so a particularly poignant sight for me- there is a risk that this political and economic marriage may exaggerate similarities between these very distinct parties in the minds of others. For ‘others’, read ‘The West’ and, as no serious conversation regarding Africa can now take place without reference to China, also ‘The East’.

Too often in the past and in the present, Africa has been presented as a homogenous place plagued by famine, corruption, war but blessed with exotic people and wildlife. Once a rather handsome West Indian asked me if I spoke ‘African’… I was far too enamoured to be rude but let him know that there were nine languages (NB not dialects) spoken in my tiny country of four million people and I only spoke one of them – and not as well as I’d like either.

Now – for those investors whose interests are piqued (as they should be) by the potential of the EAC and the promising GDP growth rates that have remained largely resistant to the credit crunch, please note: diversity is the one consistent feature in Africa.

This has been firmly brought to light in my time here in Dar es Salaam following my time working in Kenya and a very brief jaunt in Uganda. The people, the politics, the language, the attitudes are as far apart as the breath taking wide landscape allows. Call a Canadian an American, and I guarantee they won’t jump on you half as fast as a Tanzanian would if you had the audacity to bracket them with Kenyans. Tanzanians are not only a different kettle of fish, the distinctions within the nation are also significant. In fact, these virtual and cultural intra-national boundaries are as strong if not stronger than those between North and South Londoners (South rules!) or Brooklyn and Manhattan or ‘insert example of your own’.

So what to do?

Don’t assume: respect these important, ingrained distinctions; use on the ground intelligence; leverage local relationships and speak to those in the know – preferably face to face. An improved physical infrastructure will facilitate greater mixing but East Africa will never be a uniform mass despite its uniformly poor rail service.

What do you want to be famous for?

What do you want to be famous for?

And we’re not talking just 15 minutes. India has become the destination for software development, as well as a number of major outsourced processes from accounting to call centres. As new markets emerge to offer services at cut prices, whole new industries spring up around the world, boosting economies and cutting costs, and corners, for big industry. Markets like Costa Rica, the Philippines and Ireland compete in the call centre industry as well, for example, but Africa has now started to look at what it can sell on the global BPO marketplace.

As The East African writes this week: For many developing countries, outsourcing is the ultimate get-rich-quick scheme. The author writes about “the lure of the half-trillion-dollar market”, which has seen 65% growth from 2005 to 2009, 85 per cent of which is unaddressed, being irresistible.

But none of this is inevitable. It takes strategic investment from public and private sector to build the infrastructure, the talent, the demand for a particular service. While Kenya wants to become the top BPO destination in Africa as part of its Vision 2030, there’s a lot of ground work to be done – locally and internationally.

Could African countries succeed in positioning themselves as an outsourcing destinations, as a way to boost the economy, create jobs, to develop new industries? Some of the raw ingredients are there: a young labour force that can be trained in new skills, for example. More importantly, labour is cheap while the cost of property and development and source materials is lower than in much of the world.

Take the film industry. We’ve already seen Mexico, Canada and Eastern Europe become choice destinations for films ‘located’ in the United States, as they offer cheaper locations. Already numerous advertisements that seem to take place in Rome or Paris are shot in Cape Town.

But it’s not as simple as a price tag. Whether it’s a call centre or a cinema lot, to build an entire industry involves infrastructure, technology, people, training, facilities, tax breaks and an economic landscape that encourages start-ups and new entrants, rather than kills any competition.

The GIBS’ review this week touched upon it, with a review of an article from Knowledge@Wharton about Chinese development, and a comparison with India.

“A crucial aspect of the Chinese version of the developmental state has been the creation of physical infrastructure like roads, airports, electricity, internet, etc., writes WMG Media. India, in contrast, has neglected the state provision of physical infrastructure in favour of ‘soft infrastructure’ – building human capital, especially the use of the English language, to make the country a resource of service professionals for businesses all around the world.”

So there are different routes to be taken to establish a centre of excellence and a capacity to solve and service a global need, but it definitely doesn’t come to those who wait. It takes private and public collaboration and conscious planning. As countries like Rwanda and Kenya invest in ICT and skills they may not immediately compete with the likes of India and China, but they’ll sure compete favourably with the rest of the continent.

Private Sector Development in Africa – Perceptions and Realities

Can the private sector really be a driver creating opportunities for people to escape poverty and improve their lives? In theory, private sector development should be the ultimate driver of socio-economic development through job creation and its contribution to economic growth. In practice, several factors such as perceptions of Africa, insufficient policy frameworks and dependence on international aid have resulted in limited private sector impact to date.

After working in Africa for a while, one easily forgets that many outsiders still have a very “Live Aid” image of Africa. They do not know it as a region with one of the highest growth rates and a rising, well-educated middle class, but rather think of it as a place of war, famine and corruption. This persistent perception, despite recent progress and achievement, also disempowers Africans, engendering a sense of ‘passive victim’ rather than ‘accomplished entrepreneur’.

Investors who take the time to understand the continent and its opportunities tend to be well rewarded. The British firm Tullow is probably one of the most striking examples. Not too long ago, it was still a smallish outlet but its investment and belief in the African continent has already triggered the fundamental transformation of two economies and thereby the success of its own operations. The investment Tullow made in oil exploration in Ghana and Uganda has led to significant discoveries that have spelt a new and lucrative future for both countries.

Apart from the abundant natural resources found in most of her countries, Africa is also touted as the potential food basket of the world. Agriculture accounts for more than 50% of GDP and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent, but productivity remains low. And while there has been much talk about transforming the sector, the reliance on subsistence and small-holder farming has proven more than a stumbling block to developing diversified economies with higher levels of income, than an opportunity in itself.

For private sector development to work, African countries and its development partners need to create policies for commercially viable markets while promoting their country’s image and competitive advantage. An example of this is Kenya; after the arrival of a new high-speed internet cable, recognized the opportunity for Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) through the pairing of enhanced connectivity and its relatively large base of well-educated workers.

Ultimately, the promotion of value-add industries and the development of the required policy frameworks and infrastructure will allow the private sector in Africa to make significant progress in its development and contribution to job creation and poverty alleviation. The classic example of trying to sell chocolate as a finished product instead of selling cocoa as a raw material has lost none of its appeal.

Zuma in the UK

By Hamish Stewart and Marco Picardi, africapractice London

The arrival last week of Buckingham Palace’s first candidly polygamist guest under Queen Elizabeth II’s reign has been uncharacteristically subdued. But, whilst the South African premier, Jacob Zuma, will be crossing his fingers for as mellifluous a sojourn as possible, his visit should be seen as an opportunity for Britain to reassert itself as a protagonist in Africa in the face of rapidly growing competition from the BRIC countries.

Britain has much work to do on the continent if it hopes to retain its historical importance in the region and to match the surging investment and growing influence of the BRIC nations. Amongst this grouping, it is China that has made the most waves in its permeation of the continent. Although China is certainly not a new arrival in Africa, trading sums of up to $100 million per annum with some states during the height of the Cold War, recent rapid growth in the volume of economic transactions with Africa has been striking; within ten years of establishing economic and diplomatic ties with South Africa, it is now the rainbow nation’s largest trading partner. In fact, Chinese engagement in continent has seen it claim the title of Africa’s biggest trade partner, a relationship currently worth around $100 billion and growing.

Not to be left out, Russia, India and Brazil have also joined in the post-colonial struggle for new business opportunities on the continent. By mid 2008, Russia had become the second largest foreign investor in Africa. While this situation has changed following the financial crisis, it is a strong indication of what lies ahead. Large, formerly state-owned firms such as Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom continue to pursue new opportunities in the oil and gas sectors in diverse countries from Nigeria to Angola.

Along with other emerging economies Russian, and more significantly, Chinese private sector and government investment in the continent is changing the politics of aid and trade in Africa. The British are limited in their capacity to match the munificent repayment terms and low interest rates often afforded in Chinese financing of infrastructure development. Innovative schemes adopted to bolster Sino-African business, such as the creation of special cooperative economic zones, first seen in Zambia in 2007, where Chinese enterprises get tax breaks in exchange for attracting investment into the local economy, present a challenge to Britain’s traditional relationship with the continent. The most recent of these projects, a proposed Suez Economic Zone agreement between the Egyptian government and a Chinese firm from Tianjin, highlights the increasing reach of emerging economies in strategic economic sectors.

Britain must no longer rely so heavily upon historical political ties in seeking to influence the path to development of key countries, but rather must be prepared to engage in constructive long-term investment that will demonstrate commitment to a prosperous future for Africa. In light of Chinese, Russian and more recent Indian trade overtures to African leaders, Britain must be more aware that what she offers is a choice among a growing list of developmental partners in Africa. As domestic economic tides ebb and flow it will be increasingly important for Britain to build constructive economic and political relations with Africa. Here’s hoping Zuma and the Queen will get things started…