Microfinance Meltdown?

The microcredit industry has grown in size and scale thanks in most part to the success of Mohammed Yunus’ Grameen Bank, which now serves over 7 million poor Bangladeshi women. It is in India that a number of problems have been surfacing in the last year or so. And it’s a sizeable problem that could get bigger when you consider the size of the industry in Africa - 427 microfinance institutions in Africa, lending more than $4.8 billion to over 8 million people (Mix Market (Microfinance Information Exchange).

The New York Times today reports that Indian banks have about $4 billion tied up in loans – about 80% of all microfinance in India. They’re increasingly worried about their returns in the state of Andhra Pradesh, where politicians, angry at how microfinance institutions are profiting from the poor, have encouraged borrowers to stop repaying their loans.

It’s a slippery slope as banks stop lending to protect from the increasing risk of defaults, and action spreads from state to state and country to country. Despite new legislation to regulate how and when lenders collect, there is an increasing feeling that what started out as a social development movement has become more capitalist and cut-throat than Wall Street.

That’s true in Africa too. Microcapital.org reported in January 2009 that the Malawian government had decided to stop guaranteeing loans from MFIs, given the “exorbitant” interest rates, naming two institutions that did not report to the Mix Market and did not publish lending rates.

The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), in an attempt to audit and regulate the microfinance industry, simply shut down 224 out of 800 mcirofinance banks. Microfinance Africa makes the point that while regulation is needed, the reputation of the industry now needs work.

About 10,000 organisations around the world have lent about $25bn to about 20 million people. An article by the BBC cites demand could be as much as $250bn. In the same article, Kate McKee, senior policy advisor at the World Bank's Consultative Group makes a now-oft-heard comparison to the financial crisis - that strong investor interest in the US sub-prime mortgage market created incentives for unsustainable growth and aggressive lending and the microfinance industry must guard against repeating the same pattern.

The Centre for Global Prosperity has an interesting article looking at the two mindsets in the approach to microfinance – profit and altruism. While this is in the context of the controversial IPO of SKS Microfinance in India it is a global issue. Like shareholder activism, if borrowers start to feel they are being taken advantage of – whether through NGO, government or civilian intervention – those dream rates of 95% repayment might be on the way down.

But then so will the opportunity to get out of poverty for the millions of people who have so far benefitted from microfinance. Philanthrocapitalism is one thing – many corporates, banks and private individuals want to see some financial return in the work they are doing to create good. But in Africa, as in India, there has to be more weight on philanthropy. The WSJ quotes an interview with Mr Yunus: "Microcredit should not be presented as a money-making opportunity. It is an opportunity to make an impact on poor people's lives”.

What do you want to be famous for?

What do you want to be famous for?

And we’re not talking just 15 minutes. India has become the destination for software development, as well as a number of major outsourced processes from accounting to call centres. As new markets emerge to offer services at cut prices, whole new industries spring up around the world, boosting economies and cutting costs, and corners, for big industry. Markets like Costa Rica, the Philippines and Ireland compete in the call centre industry as well, for example, but Africa has now started to look at what it can sell on the global BPO marketplace.

As The East African writes this week: For many developing countries, outsourcing is the ultimate get-rich-quick scheme. The author writes about “the lure of the half-trillion-dollar market”, which has seen 65% growth from 2005 to 2009, 85 per cent of which is unaddressed, being irresistible.

But none of this is inevitable. It takes strategic investment from public and private sector to build the infrastructure, the talent, the demand for a particular service. While Kenya wants to become the top BPO destination in Africa as part of its Vision 2030, there’s a lot of ground work to be done – locally and internationally.

Could African countries succeed in positioning themselves as an outsourcing destinations, as a way to boost the economy, create jobs, to develop new industries? Some of the raw ingredients are there: a young labour force that can be trained in new skills, for example. More importantly, labour is cheap while the cost of property and development and source materials is lower than in much of the world.

Take the film industry. We’ve already seen Mexico, Canada and Eastern Europe become choice destinations for films ‘located’ in the United States, as they offer cheaper locations. Already numerous advertisements that seem to take place in Rome or Paris are shot in Cape Town.

But it’s not as simple as a price tag. Whether it’s a call centre or a cinema lot, to build an entire industry involves infrastructure, technology, people, training, facilities, tax breaks and an economic landscape that encourages start-ups and new entrants, rather than kills any competition.

The GIBS’ review this week touched upon it, with a review of an article from Knowledge@Wharton about Chinese development, and a comparison with India.

“A crucial aspect of the Chinese version of the developmental state has been the creation of physical infrastructure like roads, airports, electricity, internet, etc., writes WMG Media. India, in contrast, has neglected the state provision of physical infrastructure in favour of ‘soft infrastructure’ – building human capital, especially the use of the English language, to make the country a resource of service professionals for businesses all around the world.”

So there are different routes to be taken to establish a centre of excellence and a capacity to solve and service a global need, but it definitely doesn’t come to those who wait. It takes private and public collaboration and conscious planning. As countries like Rwanda and Kenya invest in ICT and skills they may not immediately compete with the likes of India and China, but they’ll sure compete favourably with the rest of the continent.